Third-party mediation in protracted conflicts involving geopolitical competition: The case of Libya
Working Paper 2/2026
Wolfgang Mühlberger
Keywords: third-party mediation, ceasefire, protracted conflict; institutional fragmentation, interim authorities, fragility, armed non-state actors, organised crime; geopolitical competition, external interference
Abstract:
This paper explores conflict resolution attempts in Libya since 2011, analysing the contribution of external third-party mediators and their efforts to solve the evolving, multilayered dispute and to foster a political transition. Competing actors, emergent challenges as well as peacebuilding achievements and failures are highlighted, allowing to propose steps that go beyond mere conflict management and support a sustainable political transformation. To appreciate the context of and the challenges for third-party mediation, in particular by the United Nations, the first section following the introduction sheds light on the current conflict setting and dynamics. The second part analyses how the evolving geopolitical setting affects the Libyan playing field. Section three discusses the implications of systemic challenges for the effectiveness of UN mediation, as well as the impact of parallel external efforts on the latter. Section four proceeds with an overview of mediation practice and achievements, eventually distilling recommendations for actors interested in supporting mediation processes in Libya.
Since 2020 Wolfgang Mühlberger works as independet consultant at the thematic intersection between conflict and fragility, peacebuilding, and economic development, with
a regional focus on the Middle East and North Africa. The same year he joined the Finnish mediation organisation CMI/ Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation as Senior Advisor. His research
revolves around the H-D-P nexus, the social contract, and mediation practice.